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A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey

Halicioglu, F.

Article | 2011 | Energy36 ( 5 ) , pp.3348 - 3354

This study attempts to examine empirically dynamic causal relationships between aggregate output, energy consumption, exports, capital and labour in the case of Turkey using the time series data for the period 1968-2008. This research tests the interrelationships between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure. The bounds test results indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between the variables in which the dependent variable is aggregate output. Within this study, three competing sets of hypotheses regarding the relationship between aggregate output, exports and energy consumption are tested. A . . .n augmented form of Granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables. In the long-run, causality runs interactively through the error correction term from labour, capital, exports and energy consumption to aggregate output. In the short-run, two important bilateral causalities were identified: between energy consumption and aggregate output, between exports and aggregate output. The short-run causality testing reveals further the existence of a unilateral causality running from exports to energy consumption too. The long-run relationship of aggregate output, energy consumption, exports, capital and labour equation is also checked for the parameter stability. The results also provide some important policy recommendations. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd Daha fazlası Daha az

Temporal causality and the dynamics of crime in Turkey

Halicioglu, F.

Article | 2012 | International Journal of Social Economics39 ( 9 ) , pp.704 - 720

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study empirically the dynamics of crime in Turkey at aggregate and disaggregate levels and provide empirical evidence of temporal causality between crime, health, income, divorce, urbanization and security expenditures. Design/methodology/approach - The paper employs bounds testing cointegration procedure, augmented causality tests and variance decompositions. Findings - The empirical results suggest the existence of cointegration amongst the variables. Augmented Granger causality tests and variance decomposition analyses indicate the different level, long-term associations between the varia . . .bles. Practical implications - Conclusions drawn from this study could be useful for the policy makers and practitioners in international law organizations. Originality/value - The paper provides first-time, comprehensive, time-series evidence on the dynamics of crime in Turkey using the framework of cointegration and causality tests. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited Daha fazlası Daha az

Balance-of-payments-constrained growth: The case of Turkey

Halicioglu, F.

Article | 2012 | Journal of Post Keynesian Economics35 ( 1 ) , pp.65 - 78

In order to test the existence of Thirlwall's law for Turkey during the 1980-2008 period, a bounds test approach to cointegration is applied. The empirical results suggest that Thirlwall's law holds for Turkey. This study also suggests some policy recommendations to curb the deficits in the balance of payments. © 2012 M.E. Sharpe, Inc.

The J-curve dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade: A cointegration approach

Halicioglu, F.

Article | 2007 | Journal of Economic Studies34 ( 2 ) , pp.103 - 119

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study empirically the dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade between Turkey and her nine trading partners, in addition to aggregate trade balance data. Design/methodology/approach - The paper employs cointegration, generalized impulse response analysis, and stability tests. Findings - The empirical results suggest non-existence of the J-curve effect at disaggregate and aggregate levels. However, Marshall-Lerner condition holds for the aggregate data along with some of the trading partners. With regard to the stability of trade balance equations, the findings are mixed. Practical implications - . . .Conclusions drawn from this study could be useful for the policy makers of governments and practitioners in international trade organizations. Originality/value - This paper extends the existing literature by providing initial evidence at disaggregate data in the case of Turkey. Moreover, for the first time disaggregate and aggregate data are utilized in the same analysis. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited Daha fazlası Daha az

Modeling life expectancy in Turkey

Halicioglu, F.

Article | 2011 | Economic Modelling28 ( 5 ) , pp.2075 - 2082

This study is concerned with understanding the factors of life expectancy in Turkey for the period 1965-2005. The determinants of life expectancy in Turkey are related to selected social, economical and environmental factors. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to compute the long-run elasticities of longevity with respect to the selected economic, social and environmental factors. There exists no previous study that estimates empirically the determinants of life expectancy in Turkey on the basis of time series data and cointegration framework. Empirical results suggest that nutrition and food availability along wit . . .h health expenditures are the main positive factors for improving longevity whereas smoking seems to be the main cause for mortality. The results also draw a number of policy recommendations for improving longevity. © 2011 Elsevier B.V Daha fazlası Daha az

A social discount rate for Turkey

Halicioglu, F. | Karatas, C.

Article | 2013 | Quality and Quantity47 ( 2 ) , pp.1085 - 1091

Social discount rate (SDR) is a very crucial policy parameter in public project appraisals due to its resource allocation impacts. If this rate is too high, future generations will face excess financial burden since distant cash flows will become negligible. If this rate is too low, ineffective projects are chosen creating an inefficient allocation of resources. This study estimates an SDR for Turkey using the social time preference rate (STPR) approach. The elasticity of the marginal utility consumption, which is the most important component of the STPR, is estimated econometrically from a demand for food approach during the period . . . of 1980-2008. The overall result indicates that the SDR for Turkey is 5. 06%. The European Union requires evaluation of the publicly supported commercial projects in terms of the SDR; hence the findings from this study can be used as a useful policy measurement for a full EU member candidate country, Turkey. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V Daha fazlası Daha az

A dynamic econometric model of suicides in Turkey

Altinanahtar, A. | Halicioglu, F.

Article | 2009 | Journal of Socio-Economics38 ( 6 ) , pp.903 - 907

This study is the first attempt to empirically examine the determinants of suicides in the case of Turkey using the time-series data for the period 1974-2007. This research proposes that the suicides in Turkey are related to some economic and social factors and they exhibit a dynamic relationship amongst them. Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration testing procedure is employed to obtain the short-run and long-run elasticities of suicides with respect to per capita real income, divorce rates, urbanization and liquidation. The empirical results reveal that the urbanization has the highest impact on suicides, . . . which is followed by per capita real income and liquidation. The results also provide some important policy recommendations to reduce suicides. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved Daha fazlası Daha az

An ARDL model of unrecorded and recorded economies in Turkey

Dell'Anno, R. | Halicioglu, F.

Article | 2010 | Journal of Economic Studies37 ( 6 ) , pp.627 - 646

Purpose: The goal of this paper is twofold: to estimate the unrecorded economy (UE) of Turkey over the period 1987-2007 using a revised version of the currency demand approach, and to analyze the relationship between the UE and recorded GDP. Design/methodology/approach: The paper proposes to measure the UE using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis. Toda-Yamamoto causality tests are also conducted to identify the relationship between unrecorded and recorded GDP. Findings: This research provides fresh evidence of the size of the UE relative to the recorded GDP in Turkey, which ranges from 10.7 . . .percent to 18.9 percent over the estimation period. Moreover, empirical evidence concretely suggests that causality runs from the recorded GDP to the UE. However, there exists a mild reverse causality. Research limitations/implications: Measures of the UE, and particularly those based on monetary approaches, have been criticized on several counts, including their lack of robustness and weak theoretical foundations (e.g. the velocity of money in the recorded economy and in the UE is the same). Practical implications: This analysis suggests that the UE is pro-cyclical with respect to the recorded GDP. It suggests that the phenomenon of the UE is more dangerous when the economy is in an expensive phase. Hence, during a positive business cycle, it is clearly desirable for the government that the anti-UE controls should be more effective. Originality/value: The ARDL approach to estimating the size of the UE eliminates the criticism of the previous currency demand estimations, which were based on partial adjustment models. Therefore, the paper's econometric selected cointegration methodology and causality test is an improvement over the existing studies. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited Daha fazlası Daha az

The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners

Halicioglu, F.

Article | 2008 | Journal of Asian Economics19 ( 3 ) , pp.236 - 243

This study empirically analyses bilateral J-curve dynamics of Turkey with her 13 trading partners using quarterly time series data over the period 1985-2005. Short- and long-run impacts of the depreciation of Turkish lira on the trade balance between Turkey and her 13 trading partners are estimated from the bounds cointegration testing approach and error correction modelling. The empirical results indicate that whilst there is no J-curve effect in the short-run, but in the long-run, the real depreciation of the Turkish lira has positive impact on Turkey's trade balance in couple of countries. The stability of the long-run trade bala . . .nce equations is also checked through CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved Daha fazlası Daha az

The demand for new housing in Turkey: An application of ARDL model

Halicioglu, F.

Article | 2007 | Global Business and Economics Review9 ( 1 ) , pp.62 - 74

This study provides empirical estimates for new residential homes demand function in Turkey using the time series data for the period 1964-2004. An aggregate demand function for new private dwellings in Turkey is formed and is estimated using bounds testing cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to compute the short and long-run elasticities of income and price variables. This study also implements Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Cumulative Sum of the Squares (CUSUMSQ) stability tests on the estimated new housing demand function. The empirical results indicate that income is the most significant variable in explaining . . .the demand for new housing in Turkey and there exists a relatively stable new housing demand function. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd Daha fazlası Daha az

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