Article | 2007 | Journal of Economic Studies34 ( 2 ) , pp.103 - 119
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study empirically the dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade between Turkey and her nine trading partners, in addition to aggregate trade balance data. Design/methodology/approach - The paper employs cointegration, generalized impulse response analysis, and stability tests. Findings - The empirical results suggest non-existence of the J-curve effect at disaggregate and aggregate levels. However, Marshall-Lerner condition holds for the aggregate data along with some of the trading partners. With regard to the stability of trade balance equations, the findings are mixed. Practical implications - . . .Conclusions drawn from this study could be useful for the policy makers of governments and practitioners in international trade organizations. Originality/value - This paper extends the existing literature by providing initial evidence at disaggregate data in the case of Turkey. Moreover, for the first time disaggregate and aggregate data are utilized in the same analysis. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Article | 2009 | Journal of Economic Studies36 ( 5 ) , pp.490 - 507
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to address an econometric procedure which revises and updates the technical production coefficients of latest Turkish input/output (I/O) table, as new information about sectoral productions become available. Design/methodology/approach - Both maximum entropy (ME) method, which estimates the technical production coefficients directly, and cross entropy (CE) estimation method using the Turkish 1996 I/O table as prior information are considered. Moreover, some linkage measures both traditional and relatively new ones are calculated and interpreted using the same data. Findings - Under squared erro . . .r measure criterion, CE estimation method using the Turkish 1996 I/O table as prior information gives a better statistical fit than the ME method which estimates the coefficients directly. Also, Dietzenbacher and van der Linden method's linkage values are found to be in between those of the Chenery and Watanabe, and the Rasmussen methods for both backward or forward definitions using the Turkish data. Research limitations/implications - There still remains the job of collecting information about sectoral productions in the year where updating the latest I/O table is to be undertaken in order to complete the design to be used in practice. This paper suggests this vector to be estimated using some proxy or instrumental variables approaches as a topic for further research. Practical implications - During the last ten years in Turkey, the five-year state development plans losing their traditional importance and the free markets replacing them may have partly accounted for the highly infrequent constructions of such tables. However, academic researches continue to use them as a basis, and therefore an updating of the latest table using an econometric approach such as that of the paper may be necessary. Originality/value - If in practice the preparation of a new I/O table is costly and/or difficult without a political need, then an updating scheme may be valuable. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Dell'Anno, R. | Halicioglu, F.
Article | 2010 | Journal of Economic Studies37 ( 6 ) , pp.627 - 646
Purpose: The goal of this paper is twofold: to estimate the unrecorded economy (UE) of Turkey over the period 1987-2007 using a revised version of the currency demand approach, and to analyze the relationship between the UE and recorded GDP. Design/methodology/approach: The paper proposes to measure the UE using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis. Toda-Yamamoto causality tests are also conducted to identify the relationship between unrecorded and recorded GDP. Findings: This research provides fresh evidence of the size of the UE relative to the recorded GDP in Turkey, which ranges from 10.7 . . .percent to 18.9 percent over the estimation period. Moreover, empirical evidence concretely suggests that causality runs from the recorded GDP to the UE. However, there exists a mild reverse causality. Research limitations/implications: Measures of the UE, and particularly those based on monetary approaches, have been criticized on several counts, including their lack of robustness and weak theoretical foundations (e.g. the velocity of money in the recorded economy and in the UE is the same). Practical implications: This analysis suggests that the UE is pro-cyclical with respect to the recorded GDP. It suggests that the phenomenon of the UE is more dangerous when the economy is in an expensive phase. Hence, during a positive business cycle, it is clearly desirable for the government that the anti-UE controls should be more effective. Originality/value: The ARDL approach to estimating the size of the UE eliminates the criticism of the previous currency demand estimations, which were based on partial adjustment models. Therefore, the paper's econometric selected cointegration methodology and causality test is an improvement over the existing studies. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited