Erratic crude oil prices fluctuations effects on the economic development of Turkey: the case of coronavirus pandemic (covid-19)

As an oil-importing nation, Turkey's economy is examined in the thesis by looking at its macroeconomic aggregate’s response to oil price fluctuations. Furthermore, the thesis will discuss the post pandemic coronavirus effects on energy and stock markets. Moreover, the thesis will analyze many aspects including crude oil types, production, and its relationship with other markets. On the one hand, macroeconomic aggregates will be represented by the total industrial production index, CPI, nominal exchange rate, total petroleum and other liquids production, and natural gas import prices. Error correction Model utilized for model 1: Analyzing the impact of shocks to the price of Brent oil on Turkey's macroeconomic aggregates. Model 2: examines the effects of coronavirus cases of infection on crude oil prices, stock price volatility (VIX), and the Borsa Istanbul Index (BIST-100) using an autoregressive distributed lag model. The research has econometrical and analytical areas which will use information of Brent oil prices in two models. Firstly, the correlation between Brent crude oil price and Turkish economic aggregates that will analyze monthly observations from Nov/2000 to July/2021. Secondly, estimating COVID-19 daily infected cases influence on oil and stock markets covering the period from the first infected case in Turkey 11/March/2020 until 12/April/2021. This study will add to the existing literature by bringing awareness to the significance of oil prices shocks on the Turkish economy, taking into consideration COVID19 pandemic alterations.