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How systematic is default risk?

Alıcı, Zeynep Aslı

Preprint | 2023 | Yeditepe University Academic and Open Access Information System

This study aims to provide an extensive analysis of systematic (market-wide) and systemic (sector-wide and industry-wide) components of the idiosyncratic default risk. We detect significant heterogeneity among the default risk structure of various industry groups. More specifically, the default probability of institutions affiliated with certain industry groups is more strongly linked to industry-wide risks while others are more heavily tied to sectorwide risks. We further show that systematic and systemic components of default risk alter also relative to up/down market cycles for each industry group. That is, the default risk of c . . .ompanies associated with certain industry groups proves systematic in both uptrends and downtrends whereas others induce the market risk during only bullish or bearish market states. We further consider a scenario where higher default risk of firms belonging to a specific industry group aggravates the sector risks other than its own and find that an increase in the default risk of various industry groups can in fact destabilize one or more sectors. We notice that the stability of firms within specific industry groups matter more than others for the health of an economy and the wealth of its participants, regardless of the market state while others carry weight with respect to market cycles. Our findings on the direct linkages between idiosyncratic default risk and systematic and systemic risks among financial and non-financial firms provide valuable insights for investors as well as policy makers Daha fazlası Daha az

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